Analysis of industrial & consumer data not included in usual ‘high-frequency indicators’ shows although demand seems to have recovered from pandemic, it remains weak.
While all eyes are fixed on the macroeconomic data set to be released Wednesday in the form of the second quarter GDP data, an analysis of sector-wise performance shows that the economy is still far from the robust growth needed to boost employment and incomes.
The government releases a number of metrics periodically to provide a general picture of economic performance. These ‘high-frequency indicators’— used by researchers and the media — measure economic activities like cargo traffic, toll collections, electricity consumption, trade data, vehicle sales, freight traffics on a monthly basis.
However, there are some items such as lubricants for machines, grease, paints, construction material, etc that also provide a reasonably accurate picture of the underlying economic activity, and of areas which are booming and those lagging behind.
In other words, there are items that companies and households buy only when they plan to use them, and there are staples bought regularly. An analysis of the sales volumes in both these broad categories gives a good idea of the health of the Indian economy.
TCA Sharad Raghavan 