With its fleet of hurriedly assembled tankers, Moscow is likely to defy EU oil sanctions. Moreover, eased US sanctions on Venezuelan crude to help New Delhi meet energy demand.
Even though several current global events could likely increase oil prices, India will not be significantly impacted due to the deals it has already signed, and also because the economy is now more resilient to such external shocks, according to economists.
Late last month, the US eased sanctions on oil-rich Venezuela by allowing Chevron Corporation to export oil from there. This increased supply in the medium term was expected to see oil prices ease over the next few months.
However, more recent events could play spoilsport by keeping global oil prices up. On Sunday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to maintain the oil production cuts implemented in their October meeting.
In addition, news that China was easing some of its Covid curbs has led to an increase in oil prices in anticipation of increased demand from the Asian giant. Further compounding these developments is the fact that Russia has warned that it would not sell oil to countries that accept the European Union-backed price caps.
TCA Sharad Raghavan 